Dragonfire Read online

  For my father and my mother

  CONTENTS

  LIST OF CHARACTERS

  PROLOGUE

  Briefing

  Dehra Dun, Uttar Pradesh, India

  Drapchi Prison, Lhasa, Tibet

  Briefing

  Operational Directorate, South Block, New Delhi,

  Briefing

  Zhongnanhai, Beijing, China

  Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London

  The White House, Washington, DC

  Briefing

  Chandigarh, India

  Zhongnanhai, Beijing, China

  Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, New Delhi,

  Briefing

  Srinagar, the Kashmir Valley, India

  Indian Army Headquarters, Srinagar, India

  Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, New Delhi,

  Briefing

  General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, Pakistan

  The President’s Office, The White House,

  Gongkar County, Tibet

  Indian Air Force Base, Lohegaon, Maharastra

  General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, Pakistan

  Briefing

  National Security Council, Washington, DC

  Briefing

  Zhongnanhai, Beijing, China

  Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London

  Foreign Ministry, Beijing, China

  General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, Pakistan

  Constitution Avenue, Islamabad, Pakistan

  Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London

  Foreign Ministry Building, Beijing

  Prime Minister’s Residence, Tokyo, Japan

  Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, Delhi,

  The White House, Washington, DC

  Prime Minister’s Residence, Race Course Road,

  Zhongnanhai, Beijing, China

  Lhodrag, Tibet, China

  Parliament Building, Islamabad, Pakistan

  Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, New Delhi

  New China News Agency, Lhasa, Tibet, China

  Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London

  Foreign Ministry Building, Hong Kong, China

  Oval Office, White House, Washington, DC

  Kargil, Ladakh, India

  Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, Delhi

  Zhongnanhai, Beijing, China

  Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, New Delhi

  Mumbai/Bombay, Maharastra, southern India

  Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, New Delhi,

  Line of Control, Kashmir

  Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, New Delhi

  Joint Staff Headquarters, Pakistan

  Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, New Delhi

  Briefing

  China–Bhutan border

  Camp David, Maryland, USA

  China World Hotel, Beijing, China

  India–Pakistan border, Rajasthan, India

  Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, New Delhi

  India–Pakistan border, Rajasthan, India

  Camp David, Maryland, USA

  India–Pakistan Border, Rajasthan

  General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, Pakistan

  Baghla, Thar Desert, Pakistan

  General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, Pakistan

  Baghla, Thar Desert, Pakistan

  Briefing

  Zhongnanhai, Beijing, China

  Briefing

  The Prime Minister’s Residence, Tokyo

  Briefing

  The Kremlin, Moscow, Russia

  Newsroom, BBC Television Centre, London

  Briefing

  India–Burma border, Tirap Frontier District,

  Presidential helicopter Marine One, USA

  Prime Minister’s Office, Downing Street, London

  State Department, Washington, DC

  Pentagon City, Virginia, USA

  The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

  Sargodha Airbase, Pakistan: 32° 03' N, 72°

  A. Q. Khan Laboratory, Kahuta, Pakistan: 33° 54'

  Samungli Airbase, near Quetta, Pakistan: 30° 14'

  Multan, Pakistan: 71° 30' N, 30° 15' E

  Indian military HQ, Karwana, Haryana, India

  Connaught Place, Delhi, India

  General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, Pakistan

  The Oval Office, The White House, Washington, DC

  Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London

  Prime Minister’s Office, Downing Street, London

  National Command Centre, Karwana, Haryana, India

  The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

  Zhongnanhai, Beijing, China

  Cabinet Room, Downing Street, London

  CNN Studios, Atlanta, USA

  General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, Pakistan

  National Command Centre, Karwana, Haryana, India

  Srinagar, Kashmir, India

  Indian military HQ, Karwana, Haryana, India

  The Rose Garden, The White House, Washington, DC

  RAF Upper Heyford, Gloucestershire, UK

  Eastern Air Command, Shillong, India

  Downing Street, London

  Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore

  Prime Minister’s Office, Canberra, Australia

  Great Cocos Island Naval Base, Myanmar/Burma

  Western Hills, Military Headquarters, China

  The Kremlin, Moscow, Russia

  Prime Minister’s Office, Wellington, New Zealand

  Downing Street, London

  The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

  Zhongnanhai, Beijing, China

  Kilo-class submarine 0821, type 877EKM, Bay of

  Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, Delhi,

  Zhongnanhai, Beijing, China

  Briefing

  Presidential Palace, Taipei, Taiwan

  The Oval Office, The White House, Washington, DC

  China World Hotel, Beijing, China

  Military Headquarters, Western Hills, China

  Prime Minister’s Residence, Tokyo, Japan

  Military Headquarters, Western Hills, China

  The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

  Military Headquarters, Western Hills, China

  Chiang Kai-Shek Memorial Square, Taipei, Taiwan

  Military Headquarters, Western Hills, China

  Foreign Ministry, Beijing, China

  BBC Television Centre, London

  The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

  The Kremlin, Moscow, Russia

  Prime Minister’s Office, South Block, Delhi,

  Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, China

  Prime Minister’s Office, Tokyo, Japan

  The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

  Foreign Ministry, Beijing, China

  The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

  Military Headquarters, Western Hills, China

  The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

  Operational Directorate, South Block, Delhi, India

  USS Ronald Reagan, Bay of Bengal: 15° N,

  The Kremlin, Moscow, Russia

  The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

  Xia-class type 92 strategic missile submarine,

  BBC Wood Norton, Evesham, UK

  Bombay/Mumbai, India

  Operational Directorate, South Block, Delhi, India

  The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

  Military Headquarters, Western Hills, China

  The Kremlin, Moscow, Russia

  Operational Directorate, South Block, Delhi, India

  The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

  EPILOGUE

  L
IST OF CHARACTERS

  AUSTRALIA

  Keith Backhurst – Defence Minister

  Malcolm Smith – Prime Minister

  CHINA

  Kang Suyin – Ambassador to Moscow

  Leung Liyin, General – Defence Minister

  Tao Jian – President

  Tang Siju – Second Deputy, Chief of the General Staff

  Tashi – Chinese agent in India

  Teng Guo Feng – Ambassador to Islamabad

  Jamie Song – Foreign Minister

  Lhundrub Togden – jailed Tibetan Buddhist monk

  INDIA

  Indrajit Bagchi – Home Minister

  Colonel Neelan Chidambaram – commander,

  Baghla (Wool) sector

  Major Gendun Choedrak – Leader of Special Frontier

  Force operation

  Amrit Dhal – Group Captain, No. 24 Squadron

  ‘Hunting Hawks’

  Hari Dixit – Prime Minister

  Captain Tsangpo Jamyang – Second in charge of SFF operation

  Corporal Vasant Kaul – Singh’s tank driver

  Unni Khrishnan – Chief of Army Staff and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

  Mani Naidu – Director of the Intelligence Bureau

  General Prabhu Ninan – Western army commander

  Lieutenant General Gurjit Singh – Commander, XXI

  Armoured Corps

  Prabhu Purie – Foreign Minister

  Chandra Reddy – Special Secretary, Research and Analysis Wing

  Shanti Tirthankara – anti-nuclear activist

  JAPAN

  General Shigehiko Ogawa – Director, Defence

  Intelligence Headquarters

  Shigeto Wada – Prime Minister

  NEW ZEALAND

  Michael Hall – SBS Royal Marines sniper

  Harriet Sheehan – Prime Minister

  Benjamin Leigh – Defence Minister

  PAKISTAN

  Mullah al-Bishri – Islamic leader

  General Sadek Hussein – Special Defence Attaché to Beijing

  Javed Jabbar – Ambassador to Beijing

  Yasin Kalapur – Air Marshal and coup leader

  Dr Malik Khalid – missile physicist

  General Mohamed Hamid Khan – Chief of Army Staff and coup leader

  Ahmed Magam – deposed Deputy Finance Minister

  Captain Mohammed Masood – Khan’s

  aide-de-camp

  Saeed – Stinger marksman

  RUSSIA

  Nikolai Baltin – Ambassador to Beijing

  Vladimir Gorbunov – President

  SINGAPORE

  John Chiu – Prime Minister

  TAIWAN

  Lin Chung-ling – President

  UNITED KINGDOM

  Christopher Baker – Foreign Secretary

  Martin Cartwright – BBC Asia Correspondent

  Martin Evans – Head of South Asian Department

  Eileen Glenny – Press secretary, Prime Minister’s office

  David Guinness – Defence Secretary

  General (Rtd) Sir Peter Hanman – BBC television commentator

  Max Harding – BBC television presenter

  Sir Malcolm Parton – Permanent Under-Secretary, Foreign and Commonwealth Office

  Anthony Pincher – Prime Minister

  Darren Scott – BBC Asia cameraman

  John Stopping – Chairman, Joint Intelligence Committee

  Robin Sutcliffe – Head of News Gathering, BBC

  Lord Mani Thapar – Indian businessman

  UNITED STATES

  Milton Ashdown – Ambassador to Moscow

  Ennio Barber – Presidential adviser

  Tom Bloodworth – National Security Advisor

  David Booth – Head of CIA

  John Hastings – President

  Joan Holden – Secretary of State

  Stuart Hollingworth – Commerce Secretary

  Alvin Jebb – Defense Secretary

  Charles Nugent – White House Chief of Staff

  Reece Overhalt – Ambassador to Beijing

  Arthur Watkins – Ambassador to Islamabad

  PROLOGUE

  In a perfect world, communities aspiring to development should not go to war. But time and time again common sense is turned on its head. Even societies whose standards of living are rising rapidly use the excitement of nationalism to balance either the treadmill of economic growth or the weakness of corrupt leadership. Yugoslavia, Iraq and swathes of Africa at once come to mind and danger signals are now flashing in Pakistan, India and China.

  In May 1998, both India and Pakistan carried out nuclear tests, elevating hostilities to a new, more menacing level. Asia, still wracked with poverty and conflict, now has three declared nuclear-weapons powers.

  India and Pakistan have been in conflict for half a century. Pakistan and China have a long-standing military alliance. India and China have already fought one war and disagree on how to handle restless nationalism in Tibet.

  But a far more forceful momentum is also sweeping across those two enormous countries, a sense that as empires come and empires go, at some stage the power of the United States will wane and another great power will rise up to move into the vacuum. This ambition, and an impatience to force events, has made Asia an unpredictable and dangerous place for all of us.

  China’s naval advances into the Indian Ocean and occupation of islands in the South China Sea are evidence that it is willing to anger its neighbours in order to test its military reach. India’s determination to press ahead with its nuclear programme and name China as its main long-term threat suggests a deeper degree of hostility than at first realized.

  Both countries have weak conventional military systems and only minimal nuclear forces. But that is no guarantee that either country will not make a military bid for regional leadership in the years to come.

  In Dragon Strike: The Millennium War (Sidgwick & Jackson 1997), Simon Holberton and I described a scenario in which China takes control of the South China Sea. It attacks its long-standing enemy, Vietnam, occupies the Spratly and Paracel groups of islands, and deploys submarines in the sea lanes to the Indian Ocean. When the United States intervenes by sending a warship into the area, it is sunk by a Chinese submarine with heavy loss of life.

  Pacifist Japan reacts by carrying out a nuclear test, uncertain that it can continue to count on American military protection. Much of South East Asia, looking to the long-term future, gives tacit support to China.

  American, British, Australian and New Zealand warships fight their way into the South China Sea. As China’s fleet faces destruction, American satellite imagery shows nuclear missiles being prepared for launch.

  The prospect of a nuclear attack on an American city is enough to force a rethink in Washington about how to deal with China.

  Simon Holberton and I described Dragon Strike as a future history. Dragon Fire is even more so. Developments in Asia are moving so fast that on several occasions my writing was overtaken by events. What was fiction one day became historical fact the next.

  The characters of the novel are more the individual countries than the people who run them. Loyalties, betrayals, aspirations and scars of history are played out on a political and military stage through the eyes of India, Pakistan, China and others.

  If China and India’s security aspirations for Asia converge with each other and with those of the United States and Japan, there is no cause for alarm. That, however, would be an ambitious formula. If either China’s or India’s intentions are being underestimated and the danger signs are swept under the carpet, the impact on world peace could be the most catastrophic since the end of the Second World War.

  Briefing

  Tibet

  Tibet forms a strategic buffer between India and China, and Beijing is uncompromising about policies there. Chinese troops invaded Tibet in October 1950, a year after the Communist Party victory. In 1959 Tibet’s spiritual and political ruler, the Dalai Lama,
was forced into exile during an uprising against Chinese occupation. Since then, he has lived in India. The international community recognizes Chinese suzerainty – or control – over Tibet. Although Tibetan nationalism has won great sympathy in the West, the Dalai Lama’s campaign of non-violence has failed to deliver back the homeland. Many of the younger generation have become frustrated and have proposed a more confrontational approach against China. Little known to the outside world, the Indian army maintains a unit of Tibetan commandos, specifically trained to operate in Tibet behind Chinese lines. It is known as the Special Frontier Force.

  Dehra Dun, Uttar Pradesh, India

  Local time: 0200 Thursday 3 May 2007

  GMT: 2030 Wednesday 2 May 2007

  The Antonov-32 transport plane was parked at the end of the runway, half hidden from view by a camouflaged screen. The airstrip at Dehra Dun, in the foothills of the Himalayas, was mainly for civilian use and was guarded by only unarmed policemen. Although a cantonment town, steeped in military tradition, Dehra Dun was not like a town in Kashmir or the Punjab, considered to be under any serious threat of attack from terrorism.

  Fifteen minutes before take-off, a company of men secured the Dehra Dun airstrip. They tied up the police guards, held them in the civilian waiting area, and made radio contact from the control tower, giving an all-clear for take-off. The Antonov taxied onto the runway, laden with thirty men and equipment, weighing in at 24,000 kilograms. The pilot let the aircraft cover 2,000 feet of runway before lifting off.

  It climbed sharply to 25,000 feet and turned. The winter had been mild this year. Much of the snow had melted already on the lower ground, and the night was dark and clear as only the air sweeping through the Himalayas could be. For those in the Antonov, the awesome, inhospitable and magical mountains were home, land they should have fought harder for long ago and land worth dying for. Instead of flying due east, the pilot took the longer route over Nepal, because there was no effective radar or air-defence system to cover it. They would be briefly vulnerable over the Indian state of Sikkim, then move into the airspace of the tiny Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, where the pilot would take the plane down to the lowest altitude possible among the mountain peaks.

  The man leading the operation, Major Gendun Choedrak of the Special Frontier Force (SFF), had been lucky to get his hands on an AN-32. It first went into operation in 1986 and was chosen by the Indian forces over its British, Canadian and Italian rivals. Its capability over the treacherous wastelands of the Siachen Glacier was second to none. The cargo ramp was superb and enabled loads to be dropped by drag parachutes. It handled excellently at high airstrip altitudes, being able to take off from bases as high as 14,500 feet, and it had set new standards on payload-to-height ratio and for sustaining altitude.